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Meeting of the Silver Consortium

A meeting of the Silver Consortium, wherein Perronne Ambroise will propose an investment opportunity for members to consider. Non-members of the Consortium are also welcome to attend.

Date

March 28, 2019, 7 p.m.

Hosted By

Bethany

Participants

Amari Gretchen(RIP) Perronne Carita Lycoris Orvyn Aethan Mikani Gilroy

Organizations

Location

Arx - Ward of the Compact - Silver Consortium - Central Hall

Largesse Level

Small

Comments and Log


Gretchen has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Orvyn has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Bethany has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Lycoris has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Amari has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Carita has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

The Consortium central hall is well appointed for this meeting, but not lavishly so. The many tables that are normally present have been replaced by one long table set before the statue of Cicero. A pastry cart stands off to one side, and there are a few young women (who someone observant might recognize as servers in Bethany's tea shop) moving unobtrusively around the room, serving coffee and tea with a polish and poise that wouldn't be out of place in the palace. This is a business meeting, after all, and effort seems to have been made to minimize distractions.

Bethany, standing near the head of the table, is similarly all business: "Thank you for coming. As you all know, this meeting of the Silver Consortium has been called to give Perronne Ambroise the opportunity to pitch to all of you an investment opportunity that she'd like you to take a look at. The Silver Consortium itself is neutral with regards to what Merchant Ambroise is going to propose, and will recommend neither for, nor against investing." She smiles, a slight smile that gives her fine features just a hint of warmth (even if the smile never touches her steel blue eyes). "With that, I'll turn the floor over to Merchant Ambroise." And so she does, stepping aside and taking a seat at the table.

William, a taciturn quartermaster arrives, following Aethan.

Amari finds her way to the meeting table with no fuss and settles in. While waiting for the pitch to begin, she naturally looks about with a pleasant little smile for everyone. The familiar Moore is given a wave on the sly but when Bethany prefaces what's to come, she keeps quiet and listens intently. Her gaze flicks from her to Merchant Ambroise at the conclusion, her curiosity quite evident.

Gretchen gets herself some pasties and then has a seat at the table with a cup of tea, settling in and flashing a winning smile around.

Perronne is dressed in her best silks, her waistcoat gleaming and definitely not requiring the continued picking at non-existent lint that she keeps doing. She has a small stack of scroll cases settled before her at the table, and when given the signal, stands - nearly knocking them over with the enthusiastic motion. She grabs at one that tries to escape, turning red as she stacks it back up. Then she offers a bright, sunny smile to the group. "Hello! Good evening, lords and ladies." A look around. "So many lords and ladies." A deep breath. "But I am honored by your attendance! I hope that you can hear my proposal and take it back to your merchants and traders, and some of them might consider becoming investors in my venture!" She bounces on her heels. "What I would like to propose is a plan of sustained, long-term investment in those Isles demesnes which are embracing the end of thralldom. This is a project of ground level investment aimed at developing markets moving from a forced labor economy to a free labor economy, as well as maximizing a healthy profit for investors as the number of wage-earning members of the Isle markets expands." She reaches for the small group of scrolls, and begins passing them around. "Here is a very basic outline of the investment plan. I won't lie to you - it is not without economic risk, and the profit is long term, likely to reach its peak about a decade or so from now." She grins. "So, bold and hungry merchants may find this every exciting!"

The scrolls, when removed from their cases, have an interesting definition of 'basic outline', as the text is dense, although neatly written, and there are a number of rather painful equations involved, as well as neatly drawn graphs and diagrams.

Wrapped in the ethereal lengths of black seasilk, Carita's entry is with little fanfare as her guards are left outside and her assistant is as quiet as a mouse. She takes a seat, dipping her head respectfully to those at the table, before her attention turns on Perronne to listen.

The servers make sure that a scroll case ends up in the hands of anyone who wants one.

Lycoris slides in quietly, taking a seat at the meeting table. She's head to toe in steelsilk and simple leather today and silent though she does offer everyone gathered here a nod of her head in polite greeting.

With a brief nod to those assembled, Orvyn remains standing whilst Bethany makes her speech and then also sits as she does, his attentions drawn to the one given the opportunity to speak. A ledger is flipped open and he holds a quill at the ready, waiting for something to pique his interest. The quill however is set aside as scrolls are produced and he takes one to unroll and look at what is written within. A pause, a tap of his fingers upon the edge of the table as he scratches his beard with his free hand. Still, once he looks up, he says nothing, but merely continues to listen to what is being offered.

Aethan comes in a bit after Carita, though in time to hear the proposal, luckily. He takes a seat, leaning forward and resting his hands on his knees to listen. When the scrolls are passed out, he takes one to peruse it, frowning a little bit as he reads, though it's more thoughtful than concerned. At least, probably.

Lycoris also takes a scroll, pondering over it curiously as she listens, still silent.

Gretchen takes one of the offered scrolls, giving a wave of her fingers to Carita as she comes in although her sweet smile is for Aethan as he steps in after. There's a quick grin to Amari and then she's looking over what's in the scroll, "A decade to see any sort of profit or for it to come to full fruition?" She asks as she looks over the numbers.

Carita takes a scroll as well, brows furrowing in concentration as she reads it over quietly. There's a smile for Aethan, and another for Gretchen accompanied by a finger wiggle, before her attention returns to the scroll and Perronne.

Bethany is less interested in the scroll that sits in front of her, and more interested in scanning the faces of those attending, watching THEIR reactions as they peruse their scrolls.

"As you can see from the outline," Perronne says, blithely unaware that anyone might find it...less than than clear, "there is no possibility that the abolition of thralldom doesn't have a negative outcome in the short term on Island markets - they have been benefiting from depressed labor costs for," a pause, "a very long time. And that negative outcome will have cascade effects on markets across Arvum. But! Only if it is allowed to proceed unchecked. As you can see in, um, paragraphs six through nine, a distributed risk model can mitigate the worst of the damage, /plus/ allow investors to take advantage of likely emergent opportunities as the worst effects pass." She beams at Gretchen. "Great question, my lady! Probability suggests that direct profit will start to be seen between years three and five, although there is a potential for earlier or later. You have to think of this opportunity as the establishment of a new business. It will not run at a profit at first, but once it begins to find its feet and its market, profit follows."

Aethan doesn't precisely return Gretchen's smile, but he does nod to her politely, before turning back to the scroll. He looks up when Perrone starts to talk again, and there's another nod at the first part -- the part about negative outcomes. He turns to Carita at her question, but for the moment, does not voice one of his own, waiting to hear any others.

Lycoris remains quite stone-faced. "So you'd like us, in essence... to bail Thrax out." She scans the document, "Or at least, a portion... of their debts. And then potentially - nothing is guaranteed because Thrax could crumble and fall into the sea - see some money trickle back to us in a number of years. It'd likely also take years to see the investment returned, let alone with interest or profit." Her eyes flicker to Perronne, "Am I wrong?"

"Not Thrax as I understand it," Gretchen replies to Lycoris, though she glances to Perronne to see if she's correct, "The new working class and thus the rest of the markets most of us here probably rely on. Although there would be a delay in profits as things come together, the investment would pay off. Eventually. Though I'm not sold on the profit part, it's a sound pitch."

Amari keeps an ear on the discussion swirling about, but her eyes on the figures and diagrams in the scroll she's been given. Her expression is mostly neutral as she likely runs the numbers in her head. There's no immediate complaints or questions from her. There's not a peep.

Perronne clears her throat. "Only sort of wrong, my lady. I want to make clear that I cannot accept noble investors - it is not my place to aid any noble house gain a foothold or influence with another demesne without the explicit permission of that land's ruler. But! I notice that we do have representatives from Darkwater and Kennex, so if there are nobles who wish to share diplomatic aid with Isles Houses, you certainly can do so! I believe there was an Assembly where the peerage pledged support, and all of that, but what form that support takes is a diplomatic matter, not a merchant matter." She walks away from the table, but only so that she can start pacing. She nods to Gretchen. "Exactly, my lady. What I am proposing is a long term investment, and a risky one, but it is an /investment/, not charity. I expect to make a profit. You see. There are over a million thralls across the Isles. And they don't earn wages NOW, but they will. And when they walk into their local markets, their purses jingling with maybe the first coin they've had to spend in their entire lives, who are they going to buy from? They're going to buy from the merchants who were there when they needed them. The merchants who are /present/ in those markets, who have taken this opportunity to get penetration and influence there. When these former thralls become craftsmen, farmers, soldiers, and whatever! They're going to spend and sell with people they know and they trust. To the tune of hundreds of thousands of silver, eventually."

Damien Pierce - A Charming Assistant, 1 Redreef Warden, 1 Thrax Guards, 1 Redoubt Buccaneers, Vagari - Cinder Kitten arrive, following Mikani.

Lycoris remains studious of the scroll. "So what we'd be doing essentially is... what? Sponsoring exthralls? Simply giving them pocket change to spend?"

When Perrone mentions that people will need ties to some kind of Thrax household, Gretchen swivels around in her chair to look first to Carita, green eyes washing over her and over to Aethan rather quickly, "Hey," she says with an easy smile, "How you doing, Lord Aethan?"

Mikani slips in at the back of the event. She watches the proceedings.

Aethan murmurs something to Carita, though when Lycoris speaks, he sits up a little bit straighter, listening intently. His gaze moves to Gretchen then, and after to Perrone. Then Gretchen speaks to him, though, and his eyebrows raise, but he answers readily enough. "At the moment? Well. Much better than when the compact bailed out Kennex." Clearly that's what Gretchen means. "I'm sure some people thought that was a waste of money, but we're well on the way to paying everything back. We're stable now, and growing. So, maybe that's a good precedent." He shrugs, looking back to Perrone as though for confirmation.

Gilroy has joined the A large rectangular table for meetings.

Gilroy comes in late, looks around and scurries over to what is pretty much the only place anyone is sitting. He's got a cone of paper filled with something that smells all peppery and Lycene which he pokes at with a diamondplate fork.

"And single, right?" Gretchen asks, examining her nails before giving Aethan a significant look.

Bethany watches Aethan while he speaks, and seems to be giving his words some deep consideration. Although she's not giving very much away right now, so it's hard to tell what's caught her attention. Maybe it's because he's single.

Lycoris closes her eyes a moment so no one would see her roll them, or risk having them pop out of her skull.

Mikani wonders if she wandered into the wrong room. Silver Consortium? Singles Mixer? Mika keeps her words to herself.

Perronne blinks a couple of times at Lycoris. "Oh, no. Sponsoring and giving is nice, but that's more charity than anything else. Which I completely support nobles doing! But, for merchant investors, there would be a sustained campaign of investment in the businesses and markets already extant in the lands, including aiding former thralls in establishing their own businesses and the like, of course, with infusions of capital, but with a measured rate of return over a ten year period. There will be some losses, of course, and there are unpredictable factors involved - war, mostly - but with a wide investment pool, losses can be distributed." She glances towards Aethan, and nods to him. "Yes! Kennex's data is partially where I derived my models, of course, and proves that even in an extreme circumstance, positive and profitable outcomes are possible. In this particular circumstance, aggregate risk is actually significantly lower over all. Which doesn't mean it can't fail, but...well," she grins, "I've had very good returns on my investments thus far, and I am confident that I can pull out profit again for the investors."

Carita's laughter lifts, though soft, "Not a lot," as she leans to murmur something to Gilroy. Probably catching him up. Blue eyes flick towards Gretchen and then down to the scroll in her hand, that she passes to Gilroy.

Aethan looks like he might say something else, but Gretchen's statement stops him in his tracks. He looks back at her with vague surprise, clearing his throat as he composes a reply. "Ah, yes." Okay, so that didn't need much composing, but whatever. But then Perronne continues, and his expression shifts into something like gratitude.

"You're in luck, Master Gilroy, for Mistress Perronne here can't take noble investors but is looking for some merchants and commoners who have some coin to lend their fellow man for possible profits," Gretchen replies to Gilroy as he comes in, gesturing to Aethan, "Unless some of us can find ties to a Thrax house. I think the plan seems very sound, Mistress Perronne and I am heavy hearted that I cannot contribute for I am a member of a noble house, however small."

Lycoris agrees with Lady Moore, "Mm. I see potential here too. But that does put a damper on things."

Perronne grins at Gretchen. "I am truly sorry, Lady Moore. I just would rather not be banned from any more demesnes than I already am? And, uh, helping nobles get a foothold in other noble lands directly is a good way to get banned. Or, uh, executed. Not a fan! But!" She gestures excitedly, "if there are merchants in your lands who are looking for investments, then I don't really have any say in where they get their funding from, when they invest."

Gretchen winks at Aethan when he confirms he's single.

"You're basically a commoner, Lady Gretchen, so Mistress Perronne should be fine with your participation." Gilroy tilts his food toward her. "Boiled goose?" He nods to Carita when she catches him up. "I've already said I would invest in Darkwater Watch. I just needed to hear something interesting." He looks back to Gretchen. "I've only ever been to one city in the Islands. It was Escuma and it was a hole. So if there's something I can help do about that I'd be happy to contribute."

Perronne winces at Gilroy. "No, not really. There is no 'basically a commoner'. There are nobles and there are commoners - however either choose to act or how recently the ennoblement." There's a very Oathlander sort of primness about that last. "If Lady Gretchen chose to enter into a contract with a merchant who then chose to invest in my opportunity, of course, well - I certainly don't have the right to interfere in any contract that a fellow merchant engages in!"

Amari glances up from her calculations, saying in a thoughtful tone to Perronne, "I'm not sure I trust the outcomes to be as rosy as projected, but I'll forward this proposal along to the merchants of Oakhaven all the same. They can make their own determination as to whether or not to invest." Finished with the scroll, she rolls it back up and catches a bit of the exchange between Gretchen and Aethen. A brow is mildly arched before her attention wanders and Lycoris is next studied.

Does Aethan see the wink? He certainly doesn't look as though he did. He is now most assiduously paying attention to the presentation, though he does look over at Gilroy as he enters.

Perronne smiles at Amari. "That's all I ask! I don't expect anyone to agree to invest tonight. In fact, I'd argue against it - this /is/ a risky investment, and requires boldness and patience in equal measure. I'd recommend it to established merchants who are looking to expand and willing to take a chance, over the new and the uncertain. But," she settles to place her hands on the back of her chair, looking over the table, "I will say this. I haven't gotten where I am by taking stupid risks. Risks, yes. But calculated, thoughtful, and evidence-based risks. And I've gotten pretty far! I do believe I can take investors further yet through this venture."

Gretchen flashes a sweet smile Gilroy's way, "Master Gilroy, no matter how often you ask my answer is always going to be no," She turns her attention back to Perronne as she fields all the questions, "It's an interesting proposal, thank you for presenting it. I'm not yet quite familiar with the merchants we might have other than myself over at Acorn Hill, but I'll figure it out and let you know."

Lycoris delicately rolls up the scroll, placing it gingerly down on the table before her. "My Minister of Coin, Mistress Kamaria Mairelli, may be interested. She owns a trading company, so I think this may be her thing. I could pass along the message and leave it up to her. But, I too am a little hesitant on the projections. My question is would these exthralls be staying in the Mourning Isles? Travelling abroad? Are there any strings attached to them? Conditions or terms? And seeing as how much of them would be skilled laborers would Mistress Artorius the Guildmaster also be involved?"

Carita tilts her head Lycoris' way, "Would you stay where you were forced to be, mistreated and gods knows what else? I imagine that the exthralls will be moving around a bit, uuhh.." but here she falls short, not having met Lycoris before and simply smiles as her sentence trails off. "That may be part of the forecast's uncertainty. There's no telling how each of the isle will take the news, or what will be happening, really." There's an apologetic smile shot Perronne's way. "Though, I imagine investors to rally more people to work for a particular area might be a good investment, no?"

Perronne doesn't hop on her toes with excitement with Lycoris' words, but it's a near thing. She grins widely. "Lovely! And what exthralls do will be very much up to the exthralls. A certain amount of migration, as well as flight from the Compact, and death, of course, is built into the projections. But, economically speaking, providing incentives and reasons for the men and women who are freed to remain in their lands and build lives as free citizens there is the least disruptive and most profitable option. But some of that will depend on how ex-thralls are treated, and the degree to which these people are welcomed. Again, data derived from the Kennex situation suggests that it is quite possible, especially with a slower rate of manumission to allow the local economy to absorb the shock, and provide the ability to aid and influence smaller populations. As for conditions and terms, it will vary depending on the terms of individual investments - there are some proposed contracts on pages five through seven on your scrolls, but they're fairly standard. The largest difference is that the terms are quite generous to take into account the situation, and profit returns gradually expand over time. And yes, the Guildmaster of the Crafters' Guild has indicated interest, but I cannot speak for her at this time." She nods to Carita. "And you're not wrong, Countess. I can make predictions, based on previous data, and I have. But those are probabilities, not certainties."

Lycoris glances to Carita, "Which is why I am asking. It's hard to keep track of profits if you can't keep track of your investments, trotting all over Arvum. Not impossible. It also depends on my personal networking. If I have family and a support structure in a certain area I would be more inclined to stay where my roots are. Also, it's expensive to uproot families. Not so much for a person cut loose with no ties and only the wind to guide their sails."

"Eh. If no one has ever heard of your house are you /really/ a noble? But that's a question for the Salon." When Carita whispers to Gilroy again he gives a quick laugh and nods. "I don't doubt it." To Perronne he says, "For the most part I only do stupid risks. I came in late. I have a pile of money. Where do I send it? Are you matching people up with causes, sites, projects, et cetera? Are you looking for liquid investments or writs?" Tilting his head toward the Countess he adds, "I'm still on board if you ever want to build a titan of Darkwater, though. That promise isn't going anywhere."

"I always welcome questions," Perronne assures Lycoris. "A plan that can't be tested is hardly a plan at all! Right? Well. I mean. It's a plan. It's just a bad plan. Or at least a plan with a lot of failure modes. Which isn't great. But it is still manifestly a PLAN by definition, even if it's not very effective at what it does. Unless you--" she suddenly seems to remember that she's talking to a room full of people, and hastily reorients. On Gilroy, as it happens. "For this particular investment, either liquid funds or leveraged resources are fine! Contracts and raw material shipments are as useful as silver - more, in some cases. I'll send you letters with the investment contract and the first stages in the next few days, if that's all right?"

Damien Pierce - A Charming Assistant, 1 Redreef Warden, 1 Thrax Guards, 1 Redoubt Buccaneers, Vagari - Cinder Kitten leave, following Mikani.

Lycoris begins to stand, "Sounds good to me. I, however, must be on my way. It was lovely to meet everyone. Thank you gracious hosts." She gives a polite curtsey. "I'll tell Mistress Mairelli to be on the lookout for your correspondence. Have a lovely evening everyone. Thank you, thank you." And with that she makes her exit as quietly as she came in.

Lycoris has left the A large rectangular table for meetings.

"Good. I threw away most of my actual silver betting on myself to win the Tournament of Roses." Gilroy nudges Gretchen. "Maybe next week I'll be a baron." Pause, then. "Gods, I hope not." He nods to Perronne. "Forward the papers to me. I'll look over the proposal. And then probably invest, because I have real impulse control issues. But it sounds good, and less ethically questionable than every person who has said to me 'there's a lot of money to be made from the chaos that's sure to come'."

There a hasty rise of a hand as Perronne covers a helpless little laugh at Gilroy's words. "Ah, well. Good luck! And I look forward to your investment! I do try to keep these things, uh, ethically unquestionable. Or at least make the questions small!" She hastily gives a curtsy to Lycoris as she leaves, then clears her throat. "May I answer any further questions from anyone? I'm happy to schedule times to sit down with people and talk in more detail, as well!"

"I think you answered your own question when you called me Lady," Gretchen answers Gilroy way late thanks to bouncing wireless APs. When he says he might be a baron later she laughs, "Ask me then, my Baron cousin might let me marry a Baron commoner. Mistress Perronne, thank you for sharing this pitch. I'll see if I can drum up some investors for you."

Amari watches Gilroy and Perronne mostly, listening to the back and forth with a look of mild curiosity, especially when it includes Gretchen. She seems already settled on a course of action, if what she voiced earlier was true, so is quiet now. Though the scroll in her hand is tapped against the edge of the table absently rather than impatiently all the while.

Bethany clears her throat and rises. "This discussion seems to be winding into the hashing out particular contracts phase. If there are no more questions, I'll call the meeting?"

Aethan has settled in to listening again as well, though when people begin to take their leave, he turns to Perronne again and says, "Thank you. I appreciated hearing your proposal." His gaze moves to Bethany then as she speaks, and he nods once, to give the indication there are no more questions from him, at least.

Perronne curtsies. "Thank you all for agreeing to hear my proposal. I know that it is a risky one, but I'm encouraged by your support and thoughtful questions! Additionally," she nods to Aethan and Carita, "My lord, Countess - if either of your Houses wish to speak of specific interventions that might be helpful to your domains, in return for reasonable incentives, I'd be delighted. Although Kennex is thrall free and Darkwater has fewer than most lands, I imagine you still have concerns about economic impacts." She nods to Bethany. "And thank you, to the Silver Consortium, for graciously allowing this meeting to be called. I do appreciate it!"

Perronne is overheard praising Bethany: For helping a merchant make a pitch!

Perronne is overheard praising Orvyn: For helping a merchant make a pitch!

"I have no further questions. Thank you." Amari confirms as Bethany polls the room, offering her and Perronne both an amiable little smile. No further questions, and she's already rising to be on her way.



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